RBA still warming us up for hikes
The situation in Russia is unlikely to impact the RBA or other developed country central banks for the time being. One thing to note is energy prices. When oil prices rise there is imported inflation pressure and this will start to add to an already high inflationary environment.
But higher oil prices also have an impact of slowing down economic activity. There is a natural inbuilt buffer. Higher energy prices are bad for growth and when growth slows, energy prices fall. We might view that as a real possibility this year.Â
We think the RBA continues to open the door to further rate hikes when wages start to rise...and they will. Today's statement points to lower than expected wages growth, but, once they rise, the RBA will use this as justification.Â
Bottom line: We think the banks will now pause their rate hikes and wait for another couple of months before anticipating future rises. The housing market is already showing signs of price fatigue. The Russia situation adds uncertainty, but is unlikely to dictate macro themes for the time being. Oil will rise and fall.
We continue to see an RBA rate hike in the second half of this year as wages start to rise and the property market continues to slow down.Â
Peter Esho is a Co-Founder at Wealthi and writes regular insights at peteresho.com